NAI Partners' Houston Economic QuickTake | Oil and Gas Price Impact on the Houston Office Market

3/22/20

West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell into the high $20s per barrel on March 9, representing crude oil’s largest single-day price drop since the Gulf War in 1991, according to the Financial Times. Prices have remained in the mid-$20s-to-low-$30s. Ongoing low oil prices—WTI closed at $26.85 per barrel as of March 17, 2020—could lead to thousands of job losses, and in turn, lowered demand for office space.

The last energy downturn started in 2014 and lasted until mid-2017, with oil prices plunging 75% from more than $100 per barrel to about $26 per barrel. The city of Houston shed about 93,000 energy jobs during that time and has only regained about 40% of those jobs since, reported the Greater Houston Partnership.

In December, The Greater Houston Partnership predicted that Houston’s energy jobs would decrease by 4,000 in 2020. Amid the oil price plunge and the energy stock market crash, the current forecast has doubled to losing 8,000 energy jobs.

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